After months of neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, the Climate Prediction Center is increasingly confident that El Niño is on the way. In fact, there is now an 82% chance El Niño develops by this summer and a 96% chance it lasts through the winter of 2026-27.
For Coloradans, that raises an important question: what exactly is El Niño, and how could it affect our weather?
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It happens when sea surface temperatures near the equator become warmer than average over a large area of the central and eastern Pacific.
Those warmer ocean waters may seem far away, but they can influence weather patterns across the globe — including here in Colorado.
El Niño is one phase of a larger climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The opposite phase, La Niña, features cooler-than-average Pacific waters and tends to produce different weather impacts.
Right now, the Pacific remains officially “ENSO-neutral,” meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is fully in place yet. However, ocean temperatures below the surface have continued warming for six straight months, and atmospheric patterns are beginning to shift in a way that favors El Niño development.
According to the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño conditions are expected to emerge soon and persist through at least next winter.
What Does El Niño Typically Mean for Colorado?
El Niño does not guarantee a certain type of weather in Colorado, but it can tilt the odds toward some patterns becoming more likely.
Winters Can Become Stormier
One of the biggest impacts Colorado often sees during El Niño winters is an increase in southern storm systems. That can mean more opportunities for snow, especially across southern and central Colorado.
Historically, stronger El Niño events have sometimes brought:
- More frequent winter storms
- Increased mountain snowfall in parts of the state
- Wetter conditions across southern Colorado
- Cooler and cloudier stretches during winter
However, every El Niño behaves differently. Some produce dramatic impacts, while others have relatively minor effects locally.
Colorado’s Weather Is Complicated
Colorado sits in a transition zone where weather patterns from the Pacific, Arctic, and Gulf of Mexico all compete. Because of that, ENSO signals are not always as strong here as they are in states farther south.
For example:
- Northern Colorado may not see the same wet signal as southern Colorado
- Front Range snowfall can still vary wildly from storm to storm
- Warm and dry periods can still happen during El Niño winters
Even during a strong El Niño, a single storm track shift can dramatically change seasonal outcomes.
What Is Happening Right Now
The newest NOAA discussion notes that confidence in El Niño development has increased compared to last month. Ocean temperatures beneath the surface of the Pacific are significantly above average, which often acts as fuel for El Niño formation later on.
Still, there is uncertainty about how intense this event may become.
At this point:
- No strength category has more than a 37% chance
- We are watching for whether or not strong ocean-atmosphere coupling develops during summer
- A stronger El Niño does not automatically mean stronger Colorado impacts
That last point is important. Even major El Niño events can produce mixed results depending on how storm tracks evolve during winter.
What This Could Mean for Ski Season and Water Supply
If El Niño develops as forecast, Colorado ski resorts could benefit from more active storm systems later this year. Southern mountain ranges sometimes perform especially well during El Niño winters.
Additional snow could also help portions of the state’s water supply, especially after periods of drought and below-average snowpack in recent years.
However, it is still far too early to make precise snowfall predictions for next winter. Seasonal outlooks show trends and probabilities — not guarantees.
The Bottom Line
El Niño appears increasingly likely to develop in the coming months, and is expected it to continue through the winter of 2026-27.
For Colorado, that could raise the odds of a more active winter storm pattern, particularly across southern parts of the state. But Colorado’s famously unpredictable weather means there is still plenty of uncertainty ahead.
Over the next several months, Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes will determine how this developing El Niño evolves — and what it may ultimately mean for snow lovers, skiers, and water supplies across the Rockies.