As hurricane season progresses, eyes are turning to a developing weather system off the coast of Mexico that could impact parts of the United States. Satellite and surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, with winds of 35-40 mph detected northeast of its center in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This setup suggests the likely formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm by midweek, moving west-northwest toward the western Gulf coast.

Two Day Tropical Weather Outlook (satellite view) depicting disturbance one off the coast of Mexico - courtesy of the NHC and NOAA — Two Day Tropical Weather Outlook (satellite view) depicting disturbance one off the coast of Mexico – courtesy of the NHC and NOAA

Potential Impacts

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding:

The primary concern with this weather disturbance is the heavy rainfall it is expected to unleash. Southern Mexico and Central America are already experiencing substantial rainfall, which could intensify and lead to life-threatening flooding and flash floods. This threat is anticipated to extend into Texas and Louisiana, prompting preparations for possible tropical storm watches and warnings.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches, associated with the broad circulation of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, expected across the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras and far western Nicaragua. courtesy of the NHC and NOAA — RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
Courtesy of the NHC and NOAA

Coastal Hazards:

Gale warnings have been issued across parts of the Gulf of Mexico, signaling dangerous maritime conditions as the disturbance progresses. Coastal regions along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should remain vigilant as the storm approaches, with potential coastal flooding and high water levels threatening low-lying areas and coastal roads. There is a high likelihood of it strengthening into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. Favorable environmental conditions support further intensification as it moves northwestward.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities courtesy of the NHC and NOAA

Preparedness Measures:

Residents in potentially affected areas are advised to prepare for adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and possible gusty winds. Coastal communities should secure loose objects and be prepared for potential evacuation orders if conditions deteriorate.

Forecasted Timeline:

The disturbance is expected to continue its west-northwest trajectory, possibly making landfall along the Gulf coast by midweek. As it moves inland, its impact is expected to diminish gradually, though scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecasted Track leading into the east coast of Mexico courtesy of the NHC and NOAA

Only time will tell how and where this disturbance will move and how many areas will be impacted. As always, stay aware if you are in these areas and take precautions to remain safe.

Tropical Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico May Impact U.S. Coastline

Potential Impacts