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A photograph of a total solar eclipse

April 2024 Skyview Weather Monthly Newsletter

Feature Article

Unveiling the 2024 Solar Eclipse: Cloud Cover Outlook, Scientific Insights, and Weather Hazards

Introduction

A diagram of a solar eclipse.
Diagram of a Solar Eclipse via the NWS and NASA

In the expansive realm of celestial mechanics, where gravitational forces orchestrate the movements of celestial bodies, the universe is preparing for a remarkable event: a total solar eclipse poised to offer a unique glimpse into the workings of our solar system. Occurring on Monday, April 8, 2024, this event will unfold across select regions of North America, showcasing a rare alignment of the Sun, Moon, and Earth.

The Astronomical Alignment: An Intricate Dance of Celestial Bodies

A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon, in its orbit around Earth, passes between the Sun and our planet, obstructing the solar disk from view. This alignment happens when the Moon’s orbital plane intersects with the ecliptic plane—the apparent path of the Sun across the celestial sphere—resulting in a momentary overlap of these celestial bodies.

The Path of Totality: Geographical Significance

The trajectory of totality, where the Sun will be completely obscured by the Moon, follows a distinct path across Earth’s surface. Commencing in Texas, USA, the path extends northeastward, traversing portions of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys before culminating in New York State.

Map of the North American continent with the 2017 and 2024 solar eclipse path.
The path of the 2017 total solar eclipse from Oregon to South Carolina and the path of the 2024 total solar eclipse crossing from Mexico into Texas, up to Maine, and exiting over Canada. Courtesy of NASA

Scientific Insights: Eclipse Classification

Solar eclipses are categorized based on the extent of coverage observed from a specific vantage point. A partial eclipse occurs when only a portion of the solar disk is obscured by the Moon’s shadow, resulting in a gradual dimming of sunlight. Conversely, a total solar eclipse happens when the Moon fully obscures the Sun, plunging the immediate vicinity into darkness and revealing the solar corona—the Sun’s outer atmosphere—with breathtaking clarity.

Observational Considerations: Safety, Meteorological Factors, and Hazards

While witnessing a solar eclipse is awe-inspiring, it’s crucial to prioritize safety precautions. Direct viewing of the Sun without proper eye protection can cause permanent retinal damage. Utilizing certified solar filters or indirect viewing methods, such as pinhole projectors, ensures safe observation of this celestial phenomenon.

Meteorological conditions also significantly impact eclipse visibility. Clear skies are essential for optimal viewing, enabling spectators to witness the intricate details of the solar corona. However, it’s increasingly likely that much of the path will be covered by cloudy skies during totality. Cloud cover is expected along the path of totality from Texas through southern Arkansas, with the possibility of obstruction extending to portions of Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and far western New York. Conversely, northern New England, Upstate New York, and regions from southern Missouri into central Indiana offer the best chances for clear viewing.

The National Blend of Models cloud forecast for April 8th, 2024
This map shows the cloud cover (0-100%) at 1:00 PM CDT on April 8, near the time of totality via the NWS Blend. Brighter blue indicates greater cloud cover (worse visibility) in the simulations. The more cloud cover occurs around a location on the afternoon of April 8, the less likely the eclipse will be directly visible. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

In Dallas, Texas (where most of us Coloradans will drive to since it is the closest spot to view the spectacle), the forecast for Eclipse Day continues to predict partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Widespread upper cloud cover is expected (>90% chance). Dense low clouds near the Gulf Coast are projected to move north during the day, potentially obstructing the eclipse for parts of the region. However, the extent to which these clouds will advance northward remains uncertain. Optimal viewing conditions for Texas are unlikely due to anticipated cloud cover for many areas. Confidence is high that high clouds will be present (greater than 90 percent chance) in areas in the South and Midwest. The forecast for low, however, is more uncertain, with the likelihood of these clouds in Texas being most prominent across the Brazos Valley and Central Texas, though exact locations are less certain.

In addition to cloud cover, significant weather hazards may pose challenges for eclipse observers. On Monday, an upper-level low is predicted to migrate into the Desert Southwest, coinciding with the establishment of mid-level flow across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is expected to prevail across the eastern two-thirds of Texas, extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts indicate the likelihood of a significant cluster of thunderstorms developing from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas on Monday evening. The atmospheric conditions suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will likely contribute to a severe weather threat in these regions. Eclipse observers must stay informed about local weather updates and exercise caution as severe weather conditions may impact visibility and safety during the eclipse.

NWS SPC Severe Weather Outlook for April 8th, 2024
Day 5 (Monday, 4/8/24) Severe Weather Outlook issued 4/4/24 via NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Scientific Inquiry: Research Opportunities

Beyond its aesthetic appeal, a solar eclipse presents unparalleled research opportunities for scientists across various disciplines. Studying the solar corona during totality elucidates phenomena such as solar prominence, coronal mass ejections, and magnetic field dynamics, providing insights into the Sun’s complex behavior. Additionally, ground-based observations combined with satellite imagery facilitate investigations into Earth’s atmospheric response to sudden changes in solar radiance—a phenomenon known as the eclipse-induced atmospheric response. The 2024 solar eclipse underscores the precision of celestial mechanics and offers a platform for scientific inquiry into the dynamics of our solar system. By adhering to rigorous safety protocols and employing advanced observational techniques, spectators can engage in a scientifically enriching experience while marveling at the celestial ballet unfolding overhead.


April Drought Update

February Drought Monitor Map of Colorado issued April 4, 2024.

Many of the drought stricken areas have seen improvement across the state through March. The dry sections over the northern Park Range have entirely disappeared, and some improvements in the San Luis Valley have brought their drought down from severe to moderate from several great snowfall events. Most of southwest Colorado hasn’t changed, staying abnormally dry. Areas around Dinosaur National Monument have dried to being abnormally dry, as well as areas of Baca and Prowers counties in the very southeast of Colorado.

April 2024 Temperature Anomaly Forecast

March Temperature Outlook Map of the US issued March 31, 2024.

Temperatures are projected to be seasonal for the month of April, with many areas of the country seeing above average temperatures. Above average temperatures will be around the Mississippi River Valley, New England, and the Pacific Northwest, with the highest chance for the Central and Eastern Great Lakes region. No areas see lower than average temperature chances. Temperatures so far have remained seasonal with some days in the low 70s and low dropping to around freezing.

April 2024 Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

April Temperature Outlook Map of the US issued March 31, 2024.

Seasonally average precipitation is projected for the month of April, with higher that average chance of the Desert Southwest, Central and Lower Mississippi River Valley, and the greatest chance for the Northern side of the Ohio River Valley.

Colorado March Weather Summary

March 2024 provided slightly below-average temperatures and above average precipitation for the Denver metro area. Denver International Airport (DIA) reported an average daily high temperature of 55.4°F with a daily average low of 27.5°F. Combined, this totaled 41.4°F, 0.2°F below the average monthly temperature of 41.6°F. The warmest day occurred on March 2nd when DIA reached 69°F. The coldest day was March 5th and 25th where temperatures dropped to 15°F.

Boulder Airport reported an average high temperature of 53.1°F and an average low temperature of 31.3°F. Together, the average temperature was 42.2°F. Similarly, the warmest day occurred on the 2nd with 68°F recorded for that day. The coldest day occurred on the 25th and 26th where Boulder dropped to 19°F.

Precipitation-wise, DIA reported 1.65” of liquid precipitation, 0.79” above the average of 0.86” for the month of March. Only a handful of storm systems would impact DIA during March, with 4 storms reporting at least a trace. These events occurred on the 3rd (Trace), 7th-8th (0.3”), 13th-15th (5.7”), and the 24th-25th (3.2”) which would account for the 9.2” total snowfall at DIA for the month.

However, the 13th-15th event would be skewed as minimal snowfall fell for areas around DIA with a record breaking 0.80” of liquid precipitation recorded on the 13th with only a trace of snow, whereas Douglas County had recorded mostly snowfall resulting in over 2 feet of snow in some locations with 3-5 feet for the foothills during this event. The reason that this storm produced so much snow in along the higher terrain as opposed to DIA was due to several factors including persistent up-slope surface flow, temperatures leading up and during the event which helped limit snowfall amounts below 6,000 ft and elevation with areas above 6,000 ft receiving significantly more impactful snow.

Additionally, the storm occurring on the 24th-25th also ended up a little low on the overall climatology as DIA reported only 3.2” of snow during that event, whereas other Denver Metro locations had between 4.0”-8.0” during that event. This would likely result in even higher overall precipitation totals throughout the Denver Metro as DIA had nearly twice the average precipitation for the month.

The Colorado Springs airport recorded an average daily high temperature of 54.9°F with an average daily low of 29.0°F. Combined, this totaled a monthly average of 42.0°F, 0.9°F above the typical 41.1°F monthly average. The warmest day was on March 31st when the temperature reached 69°F. The coldest day was March 16th when the temperature dropped to 16°F. Precipitation-wise, Colorado Springs Airport reported 1.50” of liquid precipitation, 0.71” above the average of 0.79” for March. Most occurred on the 14th with a record breaking 1.05” of liquid precipitation recorded on that day.

Pueblo was similar, with slightly above-average temperatures and well above-average precipitation for the month of March. Pueblo recorded an average daily high temperature of 60.3°F with an average daily low of 28.5°F. The warmest day was March 31st when the airport reached 76°F. The coldest day was March 9th when the temperature dropped to 16°F. Pueblo had well above-average precipitation, with 1.89” of liquid precipitation recorded, at 1.07” above the average of 0.82” for March. Most of the precipitation occurred between the 14th and 15th with 1.64” falling within those 24 hours.

Only a handful of events occurred over southeastern Colorado, with only 4 notable events recorded for the month. However, some of those storms brought very impactful snow. The first couple of systems were generally weak and occurred on the 2nd-3rd and 7th-8th where some light to moderate snow was over the Colorado Springs area and Pueblo, bringing minimal snowfall overall. The most impactful system moved in on the 13th through 15th bringing record breaking precipitation and widespread heavy snow for portions of southeastern Colorado. Colorado Springs saw between 12.0”-24.0” during this event, whereas Pueblo only received between 2.0”-8.0” during this time. The only other notable event occurred on the 24th through 25th bringing additional snowfall to portions of southeastern Colorado.

Weather Statistics for Denver International Airport, March 2024

DIA March 2024 Temperature (°F)

Observed ValueNormal ValueDeparture From Normal
Average Max55.4°F55.7°F-0.3°F
Average Min27.5°F27.5°F0°F
Monthly Mean41.4°F41.6°F-0.2°F
Days With Max 90 Or Above000
Days With Max 32 Or Below21.70.3
Days With Min 32 Or Below2223.2-1.2
Days With Min 0 Or Below00.2-0.2

DIA March 2024 Liquid Precipitation (Inches)

Observed ValueDate(S)Normal ValueDeparture From Normal
Monthly Total1.65”0.86”0.79”
Yearly Total3.39”1.65”1.74”
Greatest In 24 Hours1.23”3/13-3/14
Days With Measurable Precip.86.41.6

April 2024 Preview

Spring is definitely in the air as we begin to trade snow in for rain. So far, April has presented warm and windy conditions as well as some thunderstorm activity. Very little snow has fallen in comparison to last month. Below is a map of the total snowfall across Colorado so as of 4/4/24 in April. As of 4/4/24, 0.35” of liquid precipitation has fallen at DIA with just a trace of snow. 

Skyview Weather Map of Colorado Snowfall from April 1, 2024 thru April 4, 2024

At this point, we are beginning to see more rain and/or thunderstorms rather than large snowstorms. This does not mean that snow is out of the cards, as Colorado has had snowstorms in May in previous years. However, the focus for weather patterns is beginning to shift towards thunderstorm activity and lightning risk.

Denver’s Monthly Temperature, Rainfall, And Snowfall Extremes For April (1872-Present)

Top 20 Warmest April’s

RankAvgYear
156.41981
256.31946
355.51930
455.31943
554.81992
653.81881
753.61954
853.32012
953.31888
1053.21948
1152.81925
1252.21969
1352.21910
1451.81987
1551.52006
1651.51942
1751.51915
1851.41934
1951.21965
2051.21932

Top 20 Wettest April’s

RankTotalYear
18.241900
25.861999
34.951905
44.941885
54.131957
64.091933
74.071935
84.011942
93.951967
103.751914
113.731973
123.671906
133.661915
143.651922
153.521972
163.331884
173.31894
183.222009
193.151944
203.11883

Top 20 Snowiest April’s

RankTotalYear
133.81933
2321885
328.31920
428.21945
525.51957
625.41909
7251907
824.81973
923.31935
10211922
1120.42013
1219.71999
1319.61900
1419.51944
1519.51918
16181884
1717.81974
1817.61959
1917.21995
2017.21972

Top 20 Coldest April’s

RankAvgYear
138.81920
240.51997
3411983
441.11873
541.41957
641.72013
742.21945
842.31984
942.51999
1042.61918
1142.81953
1242.91995
1342.91968
1442.91884
1543.21973
1643.21944
1743.21909
1843.21874
1943.71970
2043.81951

Top 20 Driest April’s

RankTotalYear
10.031963
20.051878
30.062022
40.232002
50.311880
60.322008
70.331996
80.341982
90.391908
100.41925
110.481955
120.51881
130.531992
140.542020
150.61930
160.61923
170.61902
180.651988
190.672006
200.712000

Top 20 Least Snowiest April’s

RankTotalYear
101992
201943
301930
4T2022
5T2002
6T1969
7T1946
8T1925
9T1915
10T1910
11T1889
12T1888
13T1887
140.21963
150.32006
160.31965
170.52010
180.51896
190.81985
200.92007

April Climatology for Denver

(Normal Period 1991-2020 Dia Data)

Temperature

TemperatureObserved Value
Average High61.7°F
Average Low33.9°F
Monthly Mean47.8°F
Days With High 90 Or Above0
Days With High 32 Or Below0.5
Days With Low 32 Or Below13.2
Days With Lows Zero Or Below0

Precipitation

PrecipitationObserved Value
Monthly Mean1.68”
Days With Measurable Precipitation9
Average Snowfall In Inches6.1”
Days With 1.0 Inch Of Snow Or MoreNA

Miscellaneous Averages

Heating Degree Days517
Cooling Degree Days1
Wind Speed (Mph)10.0 mph
Wind DirectionSouth
Days With Thunderstorms2
Days With Dense Fog1
Percent Of Sunshine Possible67%

Extremes

Record High90 on 4/30/1992
Record Low-2 on 4/2/1975
Warmest56.4 in 1946, 1981
Coldest38.8 in 1920
Wettest8.42” in 1900
Driest0.03” in 1963
Snowiest33.8” in 1933
Least Snowy0.0” in 1882, 1930, 1943, 1995

Winter 2023/2024 Snowfall Accumulation for the Colorado Eastern Plains

CityOctNovDecJanFebMarAprTotal
Aurora6.62.310.43.911.617.552.3
Boulder57.89.28.513.919.163.5
Brighton4.741.12.27.88.828.6
Broomfield4.35.33.25.113.922.354.1
Castle Rock92.19.712.117.431.181.4
Colorado Springs Airport01.18.45.111.513.339.4
Denver DIA7.52.91.44.213.79.238.9
Denver Downtown5.32.16.24.610.912.141.2
Golden10.71414.613.237.754.7144.9
Fort Collins5.79.603.35.711.135.4
Highlands Ranch5.81.86.95.111.620.251.4
Lakewood8.64.111.35.521.32373.8
Littleton101.663.712.314.347.9
Monument6.51.514.814.120.325.282.4
Parker7.418.89.112.327.165.7
Sedalia – Hwy 6710.53.39.412.82035.691.6
Thornton44.44.44.412.812.542.5
Westminster5.14.75.34.813.72053.6
Wheat Ridge63.46.95.322.122.666.3
Windsor3.55.5TR4.991133.9
Snowfall accumulation totals are aggregated and QC’d by Skyview Weather Meteorologists using a combination of both in-situ and remote weather observing systems, model-derived Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) data, and proprietary snowfall measurements via trained storm spotters.

The Skyview Weather Newsletter is a monthly publication that aims to provide readers with engaging and informative content about meteorological science. Each issue features articles thoughtfully composed by Skyview’s team of meteorologists, covering a wide range of topics from the birth of Doppler Radar to the impact of weather phenomena. The newsletter serves as a platform to share the latest advancements in weather forecasting technology and the science behind it, enhancing our understanding of weather.

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