It’s that time of year again—spring is waking up across the plains, and with it comes the first chance of severe thunderstorms for Colorado. Today and tomorrow, portions of eastern Colorado sit under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather—marking what could be the state’s first round of stormy action this season.
What to Expect
While Colorado isn’t in the bullseye for the worst of today’s activity, the state is on the fringe of a broader severe threat that stretches across the southern and central Plains. The main risks for Colorado will be isolated large hail and gusty winds, especially across the eastern plains where enough daytime heating and instability could help fire up strong storms this afternoon and evening.
Storms are likely to be scattered and isolated in nature, meaning not everyone will see severe weather—but those who do might hear hail hitting the windows or feel a punch of wind ahead of a passing thunderstorm.
What’s Fueling This?
Fair west-southwesterly flow aloft is helping to create favorable conditions for storm development across a broad swath of the central U.S. At the surface, a dryline—essentially the boundary between moist and dry air—is expected to sharpen just east of the Rockies, setting the stage for storm formation. Add in some springtime sunshine and a little extra push from the low-level jet after sunset, and you’ve got all the ingredients for scattered thunderstorms to bubble up.
Bigger Action to the East
While Colorado will likely see only spotty severe weather, the real action looks to take place further east into western Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. There, better instability and stronger wind shear could support supercells—rotating thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and even an isolated tornado.
Some storms in Kansas could stick around into the evening and grow into larger clusters, drifting eastward with the help of the nocturnal low-level jet.
Stay Weather-Aware
Even though the risk in Colorado is on the lower end of the scale, this is still a good time to check your Skyview Weather app, make sure your alerts are turned on, and keep an eye on the skies—especially if you’re in eastern Colorado.
After a quiet stretch to start the year, this could be Colorado’s first rumble of spring. It’s not likely to be a major outbreak, but it’s a timely reminder that severe weather season is here.